Bitcoin could hit $10M in 9 years but more sidechains needed: Blockstream CEO
3 min read
Adam Back, CEO of Blockstream, thinks that the value of Bitcoin (BTC) has the potential to reach $10 million by 2032, the end of the sixth halving event. He believes that this can happen as long as there is improvement in Bitcoin’s layer-2 technology and wallet infrastructure.
On February 12th, Back, who is also a contributor to the Bitcoin core, took to Twitter to explain to his over 500,000 followers under what circumstances Hal Finney’s prediction of a $10 million BTC price could become a reality.
He pointed out that the price of BTC has increased by an average of 100% each year since 2013, and if this trend continues, the price of BTC could reach $10 million and a market cap of $200 trillion within the next nine years.
early this year i was curious of the claim “bitcoin 2x’s per year on average”. it checks: the decade jan 2013 – dec 2022 #bitcoin went up 2.036x/year (1200x in a decade). if that continues we’ll cross $10mil/BTC and $200 tril market cap by end of next 2 halvenings, about 9 years. pic.twitter.com/mqmO2SRdAv
— Adam Back (@adam3us) February 12, 2023
However, Back emphasized that in order to achieve this target, the development of Bitcoin’s layer-2 technologies and wallet infrastructure must be accelerated to provide sufficient time for these advancements to reach their full potential.
“i think things will get “interesting” over the next two halvings. and fast, we don’t have much time to scale tech. we need somewhere for the next billion users to own their own UTXO, their own keys, with censorship-resistant cold storage. without weakening main-chain security.”
According to Back, this likely involves making compromises in the form of sidechains and drivechains, as well as optimizing the Lightning network. He added that there is limited time available for these innovations to mature and become integrated into wallets, and that interoperation is necessary.
In response to a comment, Back expressed his belief that the adoption of Bitcoin has not yet reached its lowest point on the S-curve, as only a small percentage of the world’s population has invested in it. He predicts that an increasing number of investors will start transferring their BTC into cold storage wallets for safekeeping.
“given volatility, i think #bitcoin can overshoot wildly and tap one of these $100-300 trillion market caps, correct and then regain a steadier adoption over time. i suspect people with average entry points, relative to then current price won’t have much incentive to sell in size.”
The CEO also shed light on a possible contributing factor to the next wave of adoption, which he referred to as “hyperbitcoinization spurts”. According to him, these spurts may occur in scenarios of hyperinflation, where people would flock to Bitcoin as a safe haven.
However, Back also acknowledged a challenge in his response to another comment, stating that they “have completely failed to financialize Bitcoin” up to this point. The cypherpunk proposed a potential solution, suggesting the use of Bitcoin in mortgage scenarios where real estate is used as collateral and Bitcoin serves as the interest.
“the market in bitcoin-native financialisation is immature, almost untouched. bitcoin structured products, mortgages backed by real-estate but interest guaranteed by BTC, other products make bitcoin easier to use for more people, and match risk profiles. which creates more growth.”
Back further noted that in order to reach the $10 million mark, BTC would have to replace a substantial portion of the store of value held in bonds, real estate, gold, and stock portfolios.
You think bitcoin twitter is bullish? Hal Finney (@halfin), was calculating a bitcoin price of $10,000,000 per coin just ONE WEEK after the the genesis block on January 3rd, 2009.
Absolute legend. pic.twitter.com/5MptLhEYHL
— Doc (@DrBitcoinMD) August 23, 2019
As of now, the price of BTC is $21,800.
